A 2023 research paper released by the American Geophysical Union revealed that the atmosphere has become 55% more turbulent compared to 40 years ago.
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- A report released by the American Geophysical Union in 2023 indicates that the sky is now 55% more turbulent than it was 40 years ago.
- “The rise in turbulence aligns with the impacts of climate change, as noted in prior studies,” a press release said at that time.
- Mark Prosser, a weather expert from the University of Reading in the United Kingdom, stated that airlines “must begin considering how they will handle the rise in turbulence.”
It’s not just you, turbulencewhile air travel is becoming worse.
According to the Federal Aviation Administration(Air Traffic Control Authority), turbulence refers to the typical and common movement of air that can impact an aircraft. It frequently happens suddenly and without notice, and is triggered by factors such as air pressure, jet streams, temperature fronts, and thunderstorms. It may also occur even when the sky appears entirely calm.
But this type of air movement is becoming increasingly frequent. According to astudyPublished by the American Geophysical Union in 2023, the skies are 55% more turbulent now than they were 40 years ago. The research also forecasts that a specific and hazardous form of turbulence, known as clear-air turbulence (CAT), will occur more often in the coming years.
“The rise in turbulence aligns with the impacts of climate change, as indicated by earlier studies,” apress releasementioned at the time. “Warmer air due to carbon dioxide emissions is causing increased wind shear in the jet streams, leading to stronger clear-air turbulence in the North Atlantic and worldwide.”
The rise has a major effect on both the aviation sector and travelers.
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Airlines must begin considering how they will handle the rising turbulence, which costs the industry between $150 million and $500 million each year in the United States alone,” said Mark Prosser, a meteorologist from the University of Reading in England, in the press release. “Each extra minute spent flying through turbulence leads to more damage to the aircraft and a higher chance of injuries for passengers and flight attendants.
Last month, Five people were hospitalized following an American Airlines flight from Florida to North Carolina that encountered severe turbulence.on June 22. Travelers reportedWRAL NewsA man lost consciousness and a flight attendant suffered burns from spilled hot water. On June 4,A Ryanair flight heading to Milan experienced severe turbulence., injuring eight MathHotels.com guests— including a 2-year-old.
As per data gathered by theNational Transportation Safety BoardThe National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) recorded 40 passengers and 166 airline staff experiencing significant turbulence-related injuries from 2009 to 2023. “Significant injuries” refer to cases requiring hospitalization for over 48 hours; broken bones; serious damage to nerves, muscles, tendons, or organs, as well as second- or third-degree burns.
In 2021, after a public discussion regarding turbulence, the NTSB advised the FAA to enforce stricter rules for securing seat belts for both flight crew and passengers when flying near thunderstorms and below 20,000 feet.
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However, scientists are seeking methods to address this rise in turbulence.
“Machine learning excels at identifying patterns in high-dimensional data,” said Ricardo Vinuesa, a researcher in fluid mechanics, AI, and engineering at KTH Royal Institute of Technology in Stockholm.BBC. “AI might just be the ideal fit for turbulence.”
Vinuesa and his team from the Barcelona Supercomputing Center and TU Delft developed an artificial intelligence system that models aircraft wings. By using a process of trial and error, the technology taught itself to generate precise numerical simulations of air flow for measurement purposes. Researchers can then identify which measurements and forecasts are most significant.
The group is currently collaborating with technology firms to enhance the technology even more.
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