(MathHotels.com) — President Lai Ching-te of Taiwan faced a series of significant political challenges during the past week, damaging his leadership both domestically and internationally. With a US tariff deadline approaching, the situation may deteriorate further.
Lai’s capacity to advance his domestic agenda washandeda strike on Saturday, when an extraordinary recall vote against opposition lawmakers resulted in a major loss. Soon after, it was revealed that Trump administration officials had denied his request to transit through U.S. territory next month, due to concerns it mightjeopardize trade talks with China.
Amid the chaos, Taiwanese officials are still working quickly to meet a Friday deadline to avoid a 32% tariff from the United States. Not securing a similar tariff as countries such as Japan could lead to more uncertainty regarding Lai’s connection with Taipei’s main military supporter.
Thus far, Trump’s team has only provided Taiwan with a “best rate tariff,” without detailing the exact percentage, as reported by an individual involved in the discussions. This person noted that Taiwanese officials believe this is approximately the 15% tariff that Japan received. Additionally, the US is seeking greater investment, following Tokyo’s proposal of a $550 billion fund, the source said.
The benchmark Taiex Index and stocks of the chip giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. fell by 0.9% on Tuesday, as investors processed the absence of a trade announcement almost a week after the island’s representatives arrived in Washington.
The office of the President in Taiwan did not respond to a request for commentary. Lai’s team has been trying to reduce political harm in recent days, stating that all parties should accept the recall outcome and that there is no evidence of any international travel.
Given the continuous post-disaster recovery work in southern Taiwan and the ongoing tariff discussions with the United States, the President does not have any overseas trips planned in the near term,” a spokesperson from the Foreign Ministry stated during a press briefing on Tuesday. “There has been no delay, cancellation, or instance where the US denied a transit.
Lai now confronts a challenging journey for the rest of his four-year term. Having been in power for almost ten years, his governing Democratic Progressive Party faces significant difficulties in advancing legislation to boost defense spending as military pressure from Beijing intensifies. At the same time, Donald Trump is concentrating on reaching an agreement with China, prompting concerns about the conditions he might accept with President Xi Jinping.
“The main challenge for Lai at this moment is the trade negotiations between China and the United States, and whether the Trump administration will make concessions to Beijing that could jeopardize Taiwan’s interests,” saidJa Ian Chong, associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore. “This would present significantly more difficulties for Lai and his government.”
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China is using its control over the supply chain for rare earth magnets, essential for electric vehicles and weapons, to push Washington toward concessions. This has already led to a sudden reversal of certain technology restrictions placed on Beijing for national security reasons.
Lai is also dealing with the risk of a potential tariff on semiconductors, following Trump’s comments about imposing taxes on certain industries. According to Ma Tieying, a senior economist at DBS Bank, due to Taiwan’s dominance in chip manufacturing, the island is likely able to transfer these costs to American buyers.
Calls to move more of its manufacturing operations to American soil may have a more significant effect over time, undermining Taiwan’s “silicon shield” — the idea that global dependence on the island’s semiconductors helps safeguard it from military confrontation.
Since taking office last year with thelowest winning percentage since 2000, Lai has hardened Taiwan’s stance against Beijing and been outspoken about the island’s status. China, which considers the self-run democracy its own territory, has accusedLai is accused of “wantonly spreading separatist statements,” further escalating conflicts.
“Taiwan is a province of China. There is no president in the Taiwan region,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun during a regular press conference in Beijing on Tuesday, in response to questions about Lai’s travel plans abroad. “The United States needs to work with us to promote the healthy, stable, and sustainable development of China-US relations,” he added.
Lai’s domestic priorities have centered around defense, advocating for an increase in military expenditure to more than 3% of GDP — a target that might satisfy Trump’s requirements but could also provoke Beijing. With the opposition gaining strength due to the failed recall, his budget may face greater challenges in being approved.
Moving ahead, Lai might not be able to rely on the US for assistance, saidAlexander Huang, director of the Kuomintang’s International Affairs Department, stated that until Trump and Xi resolve their disagreements, the White House is unlikely to establish a clear Taiwan policy.
“The main focus for the US and China is determining the framework to keep their strategic rivalry going, and Taiwan is not a significant factor,” he stated. Huang recommended that Lai should work with the opposition in appointing judges for Taiwan’s highest court, where politics plays a role.standoffhas exited without sufficient justices to operate.
Prior to the latest issues, Lai’s public support had fallen to 32% — the lowest since he took office — according to a recent survey conducted by local media company TVBS in May. Almost half of the residents felt that Taiwan was moving in the wrong direction.
Lai may face greater difficulty in gaining support from within his party, as new sources of influence have arisen from the recall effort, according toWen-ti Sung, non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub.
That will only increase Lai’s challenges, as he attempts to maintain favor with Taipei’s most crucial ally.
Washington might once again place Taiwan on the back burner, portraying it as just a negotiating tool to serve the United States’ policy toward China,” Sung stated. “If this is accurate, it would be a concerning development.
–With help from Betty Hou and James Mayger.
(Updates regarding the status of the request for comment.)
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