Record Passenger Screening Numbers Highlight Continued Travel Demand
Last year, the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) screened a record 904 million air travelers, which averaged about 2.47 million per day. One of the most surprising aspects of recent years has been the continued strength in travel demand, even amid economic challenges such as stubborn inflation, high interest rates, and low consumer sentiment.
Since bottoming out in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, air travel volumes have steadily grown from 2021 through 2024, setting records in both 2023 and 2024. While it made sense that travel demand would be high immediately following the pandemic due to pent-up demand, the staying power of this growth has been impressive and unexpected.
Another Record on the Horizon?
This year’s passenger screening numbers could set another record, despite airlines previously warning of lower demand and reduced profits. From January 1 through July 14, 2025, the TSA processed an average of 2.452 million passengers per day, just slightly below the 2.453 million average from the same date range a year ago. This year was actually ahead of last year’s pace through the first five months, though demand has tailed off a bit in June and July.
Uncertainty Lingers
Despite these trends, the path forward remains uncertain due to concerns over potential tariffs, geopolitical events, and the risk of a recession. However, so far, travelers have continued to travel despite these worries. This reflects how soft data—such as consumer sentiment—has been depressed, while hard data like job growth, consumer spending, and economic growth has remained more positive.
For example, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is near an all-time low. According to MathHotels.com’s 2025 Discretionary Spending Survey, only 22 percent of U.S. adults plan to spend more on travel in 2025 than they did in 2024. So far, however, the impact of these concerns has not been as severe as feared.
Airlines Adjust to Changing Conditions
During their April earnings calls, several major airlines expressed concern that the second half of the year could be much weaker than the first. For instance, Delta Air Lines withdrew its full-year financial guidance and noted that travel demand had “largely stalled.” However, in its latest earnings announcement on July 10, Delta reported record quarterly revenue and reinstated full-year guidance with an upbeat tone, using words like “stabilized” and “resilience” to describe travel demand.
Over the past few months, many tariffs have been delayed or rolled back, although political rhetoric has recently intensified. While goods from many countries have already become more expensive, further increases are possible if more tariffs are implemented on August 1. Although airline and hotel costs aren’t directly subject to tariffs, higher prices on groceries, clothing, furniture, electronics, and other common household goods could reduce disposable income for many consumers.
Prices Remain Relatively Stable
Many observers expected prices to rise more significantly by now, but retailers have been slower than anticipated in passing on tariff-related price hikes. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) ticked up slightly in June (year-over-year, prices have risen 2.7 percent), but the inflation rate remains much lower than in 2021, 2022, and 2023. It’s even slightly lower than last year at this time.
Meanwhile, travel prices have declined significantly over the past year. The cost of lodging away from home (including hotels and motels) is down 3.7 percent year-over-year, and airline fares are down 3.5 percent, according to the June CPI report. While upward price pressures may increase in the coming months as more tariffs filter through the supply chain, this is more likely to affect physical goods such as cars, appliances, and clothing.
Credit Card Issuers Show Optimism
In contrast to the mood in April, travel providers are now more optimistic. This optimism echoes that of several major credit card issuers, which isn’t surprising given the strong ties between travel and the credit card industry. These relationships include consumer and business spending patterns, rewards programs, and co-branded cards between airlines and companies like American Express.
Credit card account openings declined in 2023 and 2024 and are on pace for another drop this year, according to Equifax. However, signs of increased activity have emerged, as seen in major overhauls of popular travel credit cards such as the Chase Sapphire Reserve® (which added additional perks and raised its annual fee in June) and The Platinum Card® from American Express (which is planning a significant overhaul later this year). Citi is also rumored to be entering the luxury travel credit card space later this year.
Back in the spring, the Chase Sapphire Preferred® Card offered new cardholders a record-tying welcome bonus. Throughout 2025, elevated introductory bonuses have been offered on many airline and hotel co-branded cards. These developments indicate that card issuers are looking to grow again after a period of tightening lending standards and reducing marketing incentives due to inflation and rising interest rates.
The Bottom Line
Whether you align more with depressed consumer sentiment or increased travel demand, there are ways to make travel more affordable and join the potentially record-breaking crowds traveling this year. Travel credit cards can help extend the value of your dollar and allow you to enjoy luxurious experiences on a budget. However, many of these cards are becoming more expensive and complex. Airlines and hotels are prioritizing paying customers and making it harder and more expensive to secure free flights and accommodations.
Cash back cards are often simpler and more universally appealing, though they may not offer the same level of rewards. The best credit card rewards strategies focus on individual users’ spending habits and goals. Consider maximizing your top purchase categories, evaluating what you want from your rewards, and determining how much effort you’re willing to put into managing your accounts. While travel rewards can be more lucrative, they also require more work.
