When planning a summer trip, timing is crucial when it comes to booking flights. According to Katy Nastro, a travel expert at airfare deals website Going, the best time to purchase tickets is within the “Goldilocks Window” â a period that offers the highest chances of finding a good deal.
“We’re right across what we call the Goldilocks Window at Going for when to buy summer flights,” Nastro explained in an email to USA TODAY. “The best odds of finding a deal for domestic travel are about 3-7 months out, with 3 months being the latest youâd want to wait. The same goes for international summer trips, but with a slightly wider window of roughly 4-10 months ahead for the optimal sweet spot.”
However, there are new challenges affecting summer travel this year. The ongoing conflict in Iran has introduced uncertainty into the market. Reuters reported that jet fuel prices have increased by 15% since the start of the war, which could lead to higher ticket prices for those who delay their bookings.
One example of this trend is the sudden jump in prices for direct flights from Seoul to London on March 11. According to Google Flights data, the price for this route surged from $564 to $4,359 within just seven days.
Fuel costs are one of the largest expenses for airlines, second only to labor costs. Typically, fuel accounts for between 20% and 25% of an airline’s operating expenses. This makes it a critical factor in determining ticket prices.
Despite these rising costs, Nastro noted that it remains unclear how much of an impact the war will have on overall airfares. While fuel prices may increase, other factors such as demand, competition, and economic conditions could influence the final pricing of flights.
“Airline CEOs, like United’s Scott Kirby, are warning of higher fares due to oil price spikes, but just because oil prices rise doesn’t mean fares will necessarily follow suit,” she said, adding that demand often does more to dictate airline ticket prices than fuel costs.
“We probably will see less people wanting to travel long-haul this year if geopolitical tensions are still high, which means demand can soften. Sure, higher oil prices raise airlinesâ costs, but if travelers arenât willing â or wanting â to pay more, airlines canât push fares too high without risking empty seats,” Nastro said.
It’s not just leisure travelers. Lorraine Tan, director of equity research, Asia at an investment analysis company, told Reuters, “Some companies start to limit business travel due to the uncertain outlook.”
A prolonged and broadening military campaign in the Middle East could create major financial and operational difficulties for airlines.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank warned about the possible effects in a recent report.
“Absent near-term relief, airlines around the world could be forced to ground 1,000s of aircraft while some of the industry’s financially weakest carriers could halt operations,” the report said. Since Feb. 28, when the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran started, through March 8, more than 37,000 flights to and from the Middle East have been cancelled, according to data from Cirium.
Other analysts say that if prices continue to rise for a long period of time, it will inevitably lead to higher ticket prices.
“I’m pretty convinced the airlines are âgoing to … look to pass through the costs â to end consumers (only if needed in the event of sustained fuel inflation) instead,” Morgan Stanley analyst Ravi Shanker told Reuters.
Nastro said she hasn’t seen any signs that airlines are planning to reduce capacity yet, but added that for passengers, now is still the best time to book summer travel, even amid all the geopolitical uncertainty.
“The best piece of advice for people worried about summer prices is to look and book now,” she said. “Airfare is uncertain, but what we do know, regardless of what’s going on around us, is that now is an optimal window for better prices.”
Contributing: Reuters
Zach Wichter is a travel reporter and writes the Cruising Altitude column for USA TODAY. He is based in New York, and you can reach him at [email protected].
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Now is the time to book summer flights, as uncertainty could raise prices
For travelers looking to save money, the key takeaway is to book early. By securing tickets within the recommended timeframe, passengers can take advantage of lower prices before they rise due to increased demand or external factors like geopolitical tensions.
Additionally, monitoring flight prices through tools like Google Flights can help travelers spot sudden changes and make informed decisions. Being proactive in booking and staying updated on market trends can significantly affect the cost of a summer trip.
In summary, while the current situation adds complexity to summer travel planning, understanding the timing of flight purchases and staying aware of external influences can help travelers find the best deals and avoid unexpected price hikes.
