Global Air Travel Demand Shows Continued Growth in January 2026
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released data highlighting the growth of global air travel demand in January 2026. Despite challenges linked to the timing of the Lunar New Year, the data reveals a 3.8 per cent year-on-year increase in total demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK). This growth was slightly offset by a 3.5 per cent rise in total capacity, measured in available seat kilometres (ASK).
As a result, the global load factor reached 82 per cent, marking a record high for January. The increase in the load factor indicates that airlines are utilizing their available seats more efficiently, despite the seasonal fluctuations caused by the Lunar New Year.
International Travel Shows Strong Performance
International demand saw a significant increase of 5.9 per cent compared to January 2025, with capacity rising by 5.8 per cent year-on-year. This led to an international load factor of 82.5 per cent, up 0.1 percentage points and also representing a record level for the month.
This strong performance is attributed to the continued recovery in global travel, particularly in regions where the Lunar New Year holiday fell in February 2026, which helped maintain higher demand levels.
Domestic Travel Remains Stable
In contrast, domestic demand increased only marginally by 0.1 per cent compared to January 2025, while capacity declined by 0.4 per cent year-on-year. However, the domestic load factor improved to 81.2 per cent, up 0.4 percentage points, another record high for the month of January.
The modest growth in domestic travel suggests that while there is still demand, the market remains relatively stable without significant expansion.
Impact of Lunar New Year on Demand
IATA noted that the shift in the Lunar New Year holiday affected January’s demand figures. In 2025, the holiday occurred in January, but in 2026 it moved to February. This change impacted the year-on-year comparison, making January 2026 demand appear weaker than it actually is.
Willie Walsh, IATA Director General, acknowledged this impact, stating that the timing of the holiday partly explains the slower expansion recorded in January. However, he emphasized that the underlying outlook for the year remains strong.
Industry Outlook and Challenges
Walsh pointed to industry schedule data indicating a 5.2 per cent increase in global seat capacity by March, which would represent the fastest expansion since April 2024. This suggests that airlines are preparing for increased demand as the year progresses.
However, Walsh also warned about potential uncertainties from recent geopolitical developments, which could affect both passenger traffic and fuel costs. He urged states to protect civilians and civil aviation from harm during these times.
Declining Air Fares and Cost Pressures
Despite ongoing cost pressures, average air fares are expected to decline in real terms during 2026, continuing a long-term trend toward more affordable air travel. These cost pressures include rising infrastructure charges, regulatory burdens, and the growing cost of the aviation sector’s energy transition.
Structural Developments in the Aviation Industry
Walsh highlighted a structural development in the industry, noting that 2025 recorded the slowest rate of new airline start-ups since 1999. He warned that governments should view this trend as a warning signal, emphasizing the need to address cost and regulatory pressures to protect consumer benefits.
Regional Performance Highlights
Looking at regional trends, international passenger demand increased by 5.9 per cent year-on-year in January, with all regions recording growth, although the pace slowed in some markets, particularly in Asia-Pacific, due to the Lunar New Year timing.
- Asia-Pacific: Airlines in the region recorded a 4.4 per cent year-on-year increase in demand, with capacity rising by 5.2 per cent, resulting in a load factor of 85.9 per cent.
- Europe: European carriers reported a 6.3 per cent rise in demand, with capacity increasing by 5.7 per cent, leading to a load factor of 79.4 per cent.
- North America: Demand increased by 3.4 per cent, while capacity rose by 2.6 per cent, pushing the load factor to 82.3 per cent.
- Middle East: Middle Eastern carriers saw a 7.2 per cent increase in demand, alongside a 7.8 per cent rise in capacity, with the load factor at 83.2 per cent.
- Latin America: Latin American airlines delivered one of the strongest performances globally, with demand rising by 11.4 per cent and capacity increasing by 8.9 per cent, resulting in a load factor of 86.5 per cent.
- Africa: African airlines recorded robust growth, with demand increasing by 11.7 per cent and capacity rising by 10.1 per cent, leading to a load factor of 77.4 per cent.
